Los Angeles votes for mayor on June 2. The race is tighter than expected: incumbent Karen Bass leads with 35% of likely voters, but challengers Nithya Raman and Spencer Pratt are tied at 23%, according to an Emerson College poll conducted May 9-10. Entrepreneur Adam Miller trails at 12%.
The Big Picture
This isn't just a mayoral race — it's a referendum on Measure ULA, LA's controversial tax on luxury property sales above $5 million. Passed in 2022, the measure funds affordable housing and homelessness prevention programs. It has raised hundreds of millions, but critics say it chases away investors and stifles construction.
With the June 2 primary, each candidate's stance is clear: Bass and Raman support ULA; Pratt and Miller want it repealed. The outcome will determine whether LA doubles down on taxing luxury transactions or pivots to a market-friendly approach.
“Measure ULA is the battleground: it survives or dies based on who becomes mayor.”
By the Numbers
- Polling leader: Karen Bass at 35%, with Raman and Pratt each at 23%, and Miller at 12%.
- Election date: June 2, 2026 primary; a runoff on November 3 if no candidate hits 50%.
- ULA support: Bass and Raman defend the tax; Pratt and Miller promise repeal.
- Revenue impact: ULA has generated over $600 million for affordable housing since 2022.
Why It Matters
Measure ULA is a unique fiscal experiment in the U.S. Its survival or repeal will have ripple effects beyond LA. If it survives, other progressive cities may adopt similar taxes. If repealed, it's a win for luxury real estate investors who view it as a drag on the high-end market.
The clear losers if ULA is repealed: affordable housing programs that rely on its revenue. The winners: luxury property sellers and developers who avoid the tax. But there's a second-order effect: a repeal could revive the luxury market, but the city loses a key funding source for its homelessness crisis.
What This Means For You
If you're a real estate investor or own a luxury property in LA, the June 2 election is a critical catalyst. Depending on who wins, the tax could be eliminated, making it more attractive to sell high-value properties without the fiscal burden.
- 1Investors: If Pratt or Miller win, prepare for a potential surge in luxury sales. If Bass or Raman win, the tax stays — plan your transactions accordingly.
- 2Homebuyers: Fiscal uncertainty may delay purchase decisions. Wait until after June 2 to act.
- 3Developers: A potential ULA repeal would lower costs, but it could also reduce investment in affordable housing, affecting long-term supply.
What To Watch Next
June 2 is the primary. If no candidate clears 50%, a November runoff will be even more decisive on ULA. Also watch for city council amendments to the measure — any legislative tweaks before the election could shift the debate.
Polls in the coming weeks will be crucial. The undecided margin has narrowed, but surprises are possible. The candidates' fundraising and endorsements will also signal momentum.
The Bottom Line
The June 2 primary will determine whether Los Angeles remains a laboratory for progressive fiscal policy or pivots to deregulation. For investors and residents, it's a moment of high uncertainty. The recommendation: monitor polls and prepare for two very different scenarios. The future of LA housing hangs in the balance.
Deep Dive Analysis
Historical Context of Measure ULA
Measure ULA, also known as the "mansion tax," was approved by Los Angeles voters in November 2022 with 57% of the vote. Its goal was to generate revenue to address the homelessness crisis, which affects over 75,000 people in the city. Since its implementation in April 2023, it has raised over $600 million, according to city data. However, the tax has been controversial: critics argue it has reduced luxury property transactions by 30% and discouraged new construction, exacerbating housing supply shortages.
The tax applies a 4% rate for properties between $5 million and $10 million, and 5.5% for those over $10 million. Revenue is allocated to affordable housing programs, eviction prevention, and homeless services. Despite its fundraising success, the measure has faced legal challenges and criticism from the real estate industry, which views it as a drag on the local economy.
Economic Implications
If Measure ULA is repealed, the immediate impact would be a surge in luxury property transactions, as sellers would no longer face the tax. This could revive a market that has cooled since 2023, with a 25% drop in sales of properties over $5 million, according to the California Association of Realtors. However, the loss of tax revenue would force the city to cut affordable housing programs, potentially increasing homelessness in the long run.
Conversely, if the measure remains, Los Angeles would continue to serve as a case study for other progressive cities like San Francisco and New York, which have considered similar taxes. Fiscal stability would allow the city to plan long-term housing projects, but it could continue to discourage investment in the luxury segment.
Strategies for Investors
For real estate investors, the current uncertainty is both a risk and an opportunity. Those with luxury properties might consider selling before the election if they anticipate a repeal, or wait if they believe the tax will remain. Developers, meanwhile, must assess the impact on their projects: a repeal would lower transaction costs but could also reduce demand for affordable housing, affecting project mix.
A prudent strategy is to diversify investments across market segments and closely monitor polls and candidate statements. Additionally, consulting with tax advisors to model different scenarios and prepare contingency plans is recommended.
Near-Term Catalysts
Beyond the June 2 election, other catalysts could influence Measure ULA's fate. The city council is considering amendments to exempt certain transactions, such as commercial property sales or family transfers. Any legislative changes before the election could alter the debate and affect candidates' positions.
Also watch for polls in the coming weeks. If Bass maintains her lead, the measure is likely to survive; but if Raman or Pratt close the gap, uncertainty will increase. Voter turnout will be key: older voters and homeowners tend to support repeal, while younger voters and renters favor the measure.
Long-Term Outlook
Beyond the election, Measure ULA's future will depend on its effectiveness in addressing the housing crisis. If programs funded by the tax show tangible results, such as reducing homelessness or building new affordable units, the measure is more likely to gain popular support. Conversely, if critics can demonstrate that the tax has harmed the economy without solving the problem, pressure for repeal will grow.
In any case, Los Angeles is at a crossroads. The June 2 decision will have implications not just for the city, but for the entire country, as other jurisdictions watch this fiscal experiment closely. For investors and residents, the recommendation is to stay informed and be prepared to adapt to a changing environment.
