Weekly pending home sales grew 2% year-over-year last week, reaching 73,241 units compared to 71,775 in the same period of 2025. This figure marks a psychological inflection point after weeks of volatility caused by mortgage rate fluctuations and the Easter holiday disruption. Beyond the absolute number, what's significant is the context: it's happening with mortgage rates at 6.29% according to Mortgage News Daily—still well above pre-2022 levels but within the annual range of 5.98% to 6.64% that the market has shown it can absorb.
The rebound isn't surprising from a seasonal perspective—pending sales typically drop during major holidays and recover the following week—but its magnitude and timing are revealing. It coincides with an improvement in mortgage spreads (the difference between mortgage rates and 10-year Treasury yields), which compressed to 2% from 2.11% during recent geopolitical tensions. This compression has prevented rates from rising even higher, creating an environment where pent-up demand can manifest selectively.
The Big Picture
Last week delivered welcome relief for U.S. housing data, but the central question remains unanswered: was this growth primarily a technical post-holiday bounce, or does it reflect fundamental demand improvement driven by lower rates? The evidence suggests Easter was the dominant factor. Pending sales dropped significantly during the holiday week, creating a low base that would naturally generate a comparative rebound the following week.
However, dismissing the role of mortgage rates entirely would be a mistake. The fact that the rebound occurred with rates at 6.29%—near the 6.25% "sweet spot" identified in recent analysis—suggests the market is finding an equilibrium level. In previous cycles, rates above 6.64% tended to more pronouncedly dampen activity. The current resilience, though modest, indicates that a portion of buyers has adjusted expectations and is willing to transact in this rate range, especially when they perceive stability or marginal improvements.
