The Great Rate Escape Begins

Chantea and Jeffrey Coonce knew they had to move. Their Peoria, AZ home, bought in 2019 and refinanced at 2.5%, was bursting at the seams with three children. After a year of hesitation, they are closing on a new home this month—sacrificing their historically low mortgage rate for more space. They are part of a wave.

The Big Picture

The mortgage lock-in effect—homeowners refusing to sell and lose their low rates—has kept the U.S. housing market frozen since rates began climbing in 2023. But a new Coldwell Banker survey of over 700 real estate agents suggests the spring of 2026 marks a turning point: one in three sellers are now giving up sub-5% mortgage rates to move.

Data from the FHFA National Mortgage Database, analyzed by Realtor.com, shows that 50.6% of outstanding mortgages still carry rates of 4% or lower, and roughly 78% are below 6%. Yet the share of mortgages at 6% or higher jumped 3.9 percentage points since end of 2024—a meaningful signal that buyers are persevering despite elevated borrowing costs. Still, 61% of agents say the lock-in effect remains a major or moderate factor influencing listing decisions.